ANALYSIS OF A NUTRITION SURVEY, CONDUCTED IN TURKANA (NORTHERN KENYA)
(DECEMBER 2004)



The data of the 2004 survey are attached as Annex 1. A comparison with the data of 2003 is presented in Annex 2. A brief summary of background data of the 2004 survey is presented in Annex 3. ( For background data on the 2003 situation: see the report on that survey.) The 2004 survey is basically a repetition of a study conducted one year earlier in the same area, under the same population, conducted by the same persons.


The 2004 Survey
Annex 1: Data of the 2004 survey
Annex 2: A comparison with the data of 2003
Annex 3: A brief summary of background data of the 2004 survey



The 2004 survey

The main conclusions regarding the BMI are presented below, together with some brief comments:
Measure Value Comments
Total number (n) 136 Number of people for whom a BMI is determined. (All those for whom no BMI was established were already left out on the sheet with survey data received.)
Standard deviation 2.32 Standard deviation (a measure of the dispersion of the observed values)
Average 16.93 Average (or 'mean') BMI
95% Confidence interval   Range of the real average BMI in the 'reference population' (with 95% probability)
Min.= 16.54 Lower limit of the real average (with 95% probability)
Max.= 17.32 Upper limit of the real average (with 95% probability)
Minimum 12.0 Lowest observed BMI in the sample
Maximum 23.3 Highest observed BMI in the sample
Median 16.89 The 'middle' BMI
BMI <16.0 = (abs.no.) 48 Number of persons in the sample population with a BMI < 16.0
BMI <16.0 = (%) 35% Percentage of the sample population with a BMI < 16.0
95% Confidence interval   Range of the real proportion of persons with a BMI < 16.0 in the 'reference population' (with 95% probability)
Min.= 27% Lower limit of the real proportion of persons with a BMI < 16.0 in the 'reference population' (with 95% probability)
Max.= 43% Upper limit of the real proportion of persons with a BMI < 16.0 in the 'reference population' (with 95% probability)

  • Thus the average (or 'mean') BMI in the 2004 sample was 16.93. If we consider the survey as a sample of some larger reference population (e.g. all those who are registered with the Ewoi programme), we can calculate (with the help of the 'standard deviation') that, with 95% probability, the real average of the entire reference population lies between 16.5 and 17.3. (the '95% confidence interval'). This is slightly better than last year, when the confidence interval was from 16.0 to 16.8. However, since the two confidence intervals overlap, one can not speak of a statistically 'significant' improvement. In other words, the difference between the average BMIs of 2003 and 2004 may well be the result of random variation in measurements.

    In fact, 'averages' are always a bit inflated by a small number of high values. A more realistic measure is often the 'median'; also referred to as the 'middle value'. This is the value below and above which lie 50% of all observations. This median in 2004 was 16.89 (slightly lower than the 'mean'). The median too is a little higher than in 2003 , when it was 16.15.

    It also emerges, furthermore, that 35% of those for whom a BMI has been determined in the sample, have a BMI below 16.0. Again, if we consider the study as a sample, we can calculate that, with 95% probability, the real proportion of persons with a BMI < 16.0 in the entire ('reference')population lies between 27% and 43% (the '95% confidence interval'). This too is a better result than in 2003, when the percentage ranged from 35% to 52% 1). Again, the difference is statistically not 'significant'.
    1) At the time erroneously reported as 38% and 50% respectively.

  • For information about the likely impact of different BMIs on people's health and life expectancy, see the report of last year. - Since the main use of the MUAC appeared to be: getting some quick idea about the BMI, no separate efforts were made to collect MUAC measurements.

On the basis of the survey sample, one can say that about three quarter of those who participated in the 2004 survey must be described as "possibly under nourished" and half of them as suffering from "moderate thinness" or from "malnutrition" (depending on the references used).

Furthermore, over one third (35%) can simply be described as "under-nourished", or as suffering from "severe thinness" (and "malnutrition").


Changes from the 2003 to the 2004 survey

As can be seen from the data in Annex 2, a total of 97 individuals were included in both the 2003 and the 2004 survey. This presents an opportunity to compare the changes from 2003 to 2004 among individuals (with less distortion by random variation than if one compares the overall 2003 average with the overall 2004 average).

Thus, it appears that on average, in this sample 2), the BMI per individual increased with 0.64. With 95% confidence we can say that the real increase in BMI must have between between 0.35 and 0.92. Thus (with the confidence interval excluding '0'), there was a statistically significant improvement in individual BMI scores.
2) i.e. of individuals who were registered with the Ewoi programme in 2003 as well as in 2004.


The median improvement was 0.58.

Below is a graph, showing the number of persons with varying degrees of changes in their BMI.

Increase               Decrease


Conclusions

Unmistakably there appears to have been an improvement in BMI scores from 2003 to 2004. Although the difference between the average BMI scores of 2003 and 2004 is statistically not significant, the average of individual changes was indeed significant. However, the actual changes per individual were in fact quite small (as can be seen from the graph), with two thirds of the observed changes ranging from - 0.5 to + 1.5.

This improvement may be due to activities carried out by the programme, during the last year. However, before accepting such conclusion, possible alternative explanations should be ruled out. In particular the following questions need to be considered:
  • Could the observed change be the result of other factors, that were operative in the area, but which are not related to the programme? (e.g. the weather, food distribution by others, agricultural inputs, increased economic standards, etc.)
  • Could the observed change be the result of errors in the measurement (e.g. faulty scales, etc.)?

Although the findings of 2004 are better than those of 2003, the nutritional status of the participants in the survey is still bad. Using the same criteria and assumptions as last year, the reference population from which the sample was drawn still has about 5 times as many illness-days in a year as well-nourished persons and their mortality is still about 50% higher.

For just over one third of the reference population mortality would be 3 times as high as in well-nourished persons. (Last year this applied to 'almost half' of the reference population.)

Before making any inferences on the nutritional status (and the changes therein) of the population at large, one has to determine (just like last year): 'what exactly is the reference population?' Do those who were included in the survey(s) represent the entire population of Turkana? Or of a smaller area (District?) only? Or just the population over 50 in that area? Or merely the (most needy) persons among them? Or only those 'most needy' persons who could be reached by the programme? Or only the stronger ones among them (who were able to come to the Centre)? Or, perhaps, the weaker ones (who needed a free meal most)? - It may not be so easy to answer these questions, but for a generalisation of the findings this is nevertheless important.

Like last year, a purposeful selection of 'needy people' has apparently been made. Thus the average BMI in this sample is likely to be lower than that of the overall Turkana population (even of the Turkana population over 50). Similarly, the proportion of persons in the sample with a BMI < 16.0 is likely to be larger than that of the entire population (even of the Turkana population over 50).

Probably one can only say with cerrtainty that the persons in the study are representative of the of the Ewoi Project. It should be remembered however that, of 48 persons who turned up, no BMI was obtained, because they were physically unable to undergo the measurements. If these too had been included in the survey the results would probably have been worse.

In a general sense one may conclude that most participants in the Ewoi Project are possibly under nourished; half are definitely malnourished and one third of them are seriously malnourished. yet, it appears that there has been some noticeable improvement over last year: individual BMIs increased with a value of 0.64.


29-12-04,

Eric R. de Winter, MD, MPH



ANNEX 1

Survey data December 2004

Location No. Serial No. Weight (kg) Height (m) (Height)Square BMI=Weight /
(Height) Square
BMI(Autom.)
Nakwamakwi 1 3 46.5 1.49     20.9
  2 28 35 1.537     14.8
  3 34 44.5 1.654     16.3
  4 41 36 1.587     14.3
  5 54 43 1.614     16.5
  6 62 37.5 1.566     15.3
  7 72 36.5 1.55     15.2
  8 73 45 1.602     17.5
  9 79 45 1.589     17.8
  10 84 56 1.822     16.9
  11 91 37.5 1.564     15.3
  12 95 39 1.682     13.8
  13 89 35.5 1.535     15.1
  14 144 37.5 1.463     17.5
  15 153 32.5 1.64     12.1
  16 158 55 1.73     18.4
  17 164 54.5 1.58     21.8
  18 165 43.5 1.583     17.4
  19 166 33 1.655     12.0
  20 167 43 1.633     16.1
  21 170 32 1.503     14.2
  22 172 51 1.607     19.7
  23 175 42.5 1.573     17.2
  24 176 41.5 1.615     15.9
  25 212 56 1.63     21.1
  26 216 40 1.572     16.2
  27 229 36 1.647     13.3
  28 233 54.5 1.732     18.2
  29 240 37.5 1.713     12.8
  30 241 34 1.472     15.7
  31 234 38.5 1.594     15.2
  32 236 42 1.611     16.2
  33 239 34.5 1.622     13.1
  34 270 46.5 1.663     16.8
  35 287 38 1.613     14.6
Kawalase 36 15 43 1.61     16.6
  37 61 39 1.5     17.3
  38 74 50 1.626     18.9
  39 98 43 1.724     14.5
  40 143 35 1.47     16.2
  41 184 42 1.57     17.0
  42 187 42 1.587     16.7
  43 188 56 1.623     21.3
  44 191 37 1.664     13.4
  45 196 44 1.51     19.3
  46 214 41 1.482     18.7
  47 12 51 1.703     17.6
  48 301A 34 1.6     13.3
  49 134 44 1.506     19.4
  50 135 39 1.521     16.9
  51 136 51 1.58     20.4
  52 138 48 1.66     17.4
  53 257 43 1.486     19.5
  54 259 41 1.49     18.5
  55 264 57 1.77     18.2
  56 10 46 1.583     18.4
  57 227 41 1.655     15.0
  58 228 43.5 1.621     16.6
  59 262 45 1.632     16.9
  60 24 42.5 1.539     17.9
  61 78 41 1.558     16.9
  62 225 53 1.507     23.3
  63 230 46 1.52     19.9
  64 231 55 1.684     19.4
Napatet 65 30 35 1.578     14.1
  66 43 29.5 1.312     17.1
  67 44 39.5 1.608     15.3
  68 52 48.5 1.641     18.0
  69 81 41 1.536     17.4
  70 82 37.5 1.52     16.2
  71 85 49.5 1.621     18.8
  72 87 51 1.617     19.5
  73 133 39.5 1.642     14.7
  74 201 37 1.648     13.6
  75 221 51 1.604     19.8
  76 235 42 1.506     18.5
  77 263 42 1.618     16.0
  78 278 32 1.6     12.5
  79 277 40 1.583     16.0
  80 285 39.5 1.628     14.9
  81 286 50.5 1.63     19.0
  82 295 51 1.713     17.4
  83 299 43.5 1.614     16.7
  84 1 37 1.596     14.5
  85 6 50 1.593     19.7
  86 55 39.5 1.562     16.2
  87 103 37 1.541     15.6
  88 146 42 1.553     17.4
  89 147 52 1.61     20.1
  90 151 50 1.649     18.4
  91 204 61 1.695     21.2
  92 205 43 1.566     17.5
  93 35 34 1.489     15.3
  94 107 40 1.522     17.3
  95 272 34.5 1.535     14.6
  96 274 40 1.595     15.7
  97 275 45 1.496     20.1
  98 273 41.5 1.612     16.0
  99 152 55 1.655     20.1
  100 255 50 1.654     18.3
Kanamkemer 101 22 48 1.695     16.7
  102 47 35 1.484     15.9
  103 58 40 1.461     18.7
  104 67 45 1.755     14.6
  105 76 36 1.694     12.5
  106 88 42 1.651     15.4
  107 128 37 1.504     16.4
  108 129 50 1.505     22.1
  109 131 46 1.656     16.8
  110 195 37 1.571     15.0
  111 199 44 1.587     17.5
  112 251 50 1.599     19.6
  113 254 64 1.805     19.6
  114 260 40 1.661     14.5
  115 268 50 1.685     17.6
  116 289 51 1.605     19.8
  117 290 40 1.611     15.4
  118 291 47 1.531     20.1
  119 292 44 1.494     19.7
  120 93 48 1.625     18.2
  121 96 39 1.632     14.6
  122 130 42 1.505     18.5
  123 197 31 1.605     12.0
  124 198 44 1.583     17.6
  125 211 45 1.578     18.1
  126 218 34 1.567     13.8
  127 237 49 1.608     19.0
  128 238 40 1.621     15.2
  129 7 32 1.545     13.4
  130 8 39 1.591     15.4
  131 66 45 1.617     17.2
  132 118 35 1.433     17.0
  133 120 41 1.465     19.1
  134 121 44 1.609     17.0
  135 194 47 1.537     19.9
  136 195 37 1.571     15.0

Criterion for cut-off point: BMI (Autom.): <16
n     136
Average     16.93
Standard dev.     2.32
  95% Confidence interval
    Min.= 16.54
    Max.= 17.32
Mimimum     12.0
Maximum     23.3
Median     16.89
BMI <16   48
BMI <16   35%
  95% Confidence interval
    Min.= 27%
    Max.= 43%




ANNEX 2

Survey data 2003 vs.2004

Serial No. BMI 2003 BMI 2004 BMI change 2003-2004
1 13.8 14.5 0.7
3 20.5 20.9 0.4
4 20.0    
6 18.8 19.7 0.9
7 15.5 13.4 -2.1
8 15.4 15.4 0.0
10   18.4  
12 16.9 17.6 0.7
15 15.4 16.6 1.2
17 17.6     
22   16.7  
24 18.3 17.9 -0.4
28 15.4 14.8 -0.6
30 14.2 14.1 -0.1
32 15.0    
34 15.4 16.3 0.9
35   15.3  
41 13.0 14.3 1.3
42 19.5    
43   17.1  
44   15.3  
22 17.1 15.9 -1.2
49 17.4    
52 15.9 18.0 2.1
54 17.9 16.5 -1.4
55 15.8 16.2 0.4
58 19.2 18.7 -0.5
61 16.8 17.3 0.5
62 15.4 15.3 -0.1
63 16.1    
66 15.6 17.2 1.6
67 14.5 14.6 0.1
68 19.3    
72 14.5 15.2 0.7
73   17.5  
74 21.2 18.9 -2.3
76   12.5  
78 17.0 16.9 -0.1
79   17.8  
81 17.5 17.4 -0.1
82 16.0 16.2 0.2
83 15.5    
84   16.9  
85   18.8  
87 19.2 19.5 0.3
88   15.4  
89 14.5 15.1 0.6
90 15.3    
91 15.0 15.3 0.3
93 18.1 18.2 0.1
95 13.5 13.8 0.3
96 14.0 14.6 0.6
98 14.2 14.5 0.3
99 15.8    
103 16.0 15.6 -0.4
107 14.9 17.3 2.4
108 13.4    
118 16.6 17.0 0.4
120 13.3 19.1 5.8
121   17.0  
123 17.1    
128   16.4  
129 20.3 22.1 1.8
130 17.9 18.5 0.6
131 16.0 16.8 0.8
133 14.1 14.7 0.6
134 19.0 19.4 0.4
135 16.2 16.9 0.7
136 19.5 20.4 0.9
138   17.4  
142 12.8    
143   16.2  
144 17.6 17.5 -0.1
146 17.9 17.4 -0.5
147 17.9 20.1 2.2
151 17.9 18.4 0.5
152 18.9 20.1 1.2
153 15.8 12.1 -3.7
157 15.0    
158 16.0 18.4 2.4
159 17.0    
161 16.2    
164 20.6 21.8 1.2
165   17.4  
166   12.0  
167 16.0 16.1 0.1
168 14.6    
170 16.2 14.2 -2.0
172   19.7  
175 16.9 17.2 0.3
176 15.4 15.9 0.5
184 16.8 17.0 0.2
187 18.4 16.7 -1.7
188 22.6 21.3 -1.3
191   13.4  
192 14.0    
194 16.8 19.9 3.1
195 14.2 15.0 0.8
195   15.0  
196   19.3  
197 14.2 12.0 -2.2
198 17.4 17.6 0.2
199 16.0 17.5 1.5
201 14.8 13.6 -1.2
203 12.5    
204 20.4 21.2 0.8
205 16.0 17.5 1.5
209 14.6    
210 14.0    
211 17.2 18.1 0.9
212 18.1 21.1 3.0
214 16.4 18.7 2.3
216   16.2  
218 13.0 13.8 0.8
220 18.5    
221 18.7 19.8 1.1
222 19.6    
225 22.5 23.3 0.8
226 17.5    
227 13.8 15.0 1.2
228 17.1 16.6 -0.5
229 12.5 13.3 0.8
230 19.8 19.9 0.1
231 18.6 19.4 0.8
233 18.5 18.2 -0.3
234   15.2  
235 13.4 18.5 5.1
236 14.6 16.2 1.6
237 18.3 19.0 0.7
238   15.2  
239 13.2 13.1 -0.1
240 11.4 12.8 1.4
241 15.7 15.7 0.0
249 13.6    
250 17.0    
251 19.1 19.6 0.5
254   19.6  
255 17.7 18.3 0.6
257 16.5 19.5 3.0
259 16.7 18.5 1.8
260 16.3 14.5 -1.8
261 19.0    
262 15.0 16.9 1.9
263   16.0  
264 17.0 18.2 1.2
268 14.5 17.6 3.1
270   16.8  
272 11.6 14.6 3.0
273 15.0 16.0 1.0
274 14.4 15.7 1.3
275 16.6 20.1 3.5
277 16.0    
278 12.5    
285 14.9    
286 19.0    
287 14.6    
289 19.8    
290 15.4    
291 20.1    
292 19.7    
295 17.4    
299 16.7    
301A   13.3  
 
n ( = Number included in both surveys): 97
Average change 2003 to 2004: 0.64
Standard dev.     1.44
  95% Confidence interval
    Min.= 0.35
    Max.= 0.92
Mimimum     -3.7
Maximum     5.8
Median     0.58




ANNEX 3


Background information



Like in 2003, all 206 clients of the Ewoi Project in Turkana (needy persons of 50 years and older) have been invited for a 'Christmas party', including a meal, at the project centre. Also like in 2003, of all those who attended, body weight and height was measured and a BMI was subsequently calculated. Bodyweights were measured by a nurse; weights were recorded by another person, who was trained for this job (the same person who carried out the measurements last year).

During the period from Monday 6th December until Thursday 9th December 184 elderly persons came to the office. Of 136 of these height and weight could be measured. It is assumed that, like last year, the reason why the remaining 48 have not been examined, was the fact that they were physically unable to undergo this 'examination'. (They may have been handicapped and unable to stand on the scale, or to stand straight for the measurement of their height. Generalised tremors were reportedly also a reason for not undergoing the weighing and measuring process.)

Nothing is known of those who were invited, but did not come. The following possibilities seem to exist in these cases:
  • the person may not have received the invitation
  • the person may have died
  • the person may be ill, or too weak to come to the centre alone and there was nobody to accompany him/her
  • the person may be ill, or too weak to come to the centre, even when accompanied by someone else (few instances)
  • the person may have moved to a different area (rare).